How to read Intelligence signals and narratives

Choose the right time horizon

Short term contains live detector signals and narratives that decay over hours to days. Long term contains sentiment and market-cycle context. Do not use a long-term regime to time a short-term entry, or let one fresh transfer overturn a broader cycle read. The horizon switch is a change in question, not just layout.

Know what each tab proves

Signals are raw detector events. Forming shows a narrative whose required evidence is only partly present. Fired shows a narrative that met its rule set. Results contains resolved calls after the outcome window. Filter by direction, asset and time to compare like with like. Fired means conditions matched - not that profit is guaranteed.

• Signal One detector observed one qualifying fact.
• Forming Some required members agree, but the narrative is incomplete.
• Fired The configured narrative rule set was satisfied.
• Result The later price path was scored after the evaluation window.

Read the evidence stack, not the headline

Open a narrative to inspect its direction, score, agreeing detectors, transactions and next observable. Score measures the strength and agreement of configured evidence; it is not a probability. Direction semantics follow physical flow: exchange outflow fits accumulation and bullish context, while inflow fits distribution and bearish context. Contradictory facts should lower confidence, not be explained away.

Use Results as calibration

Results resolves narratives against the later market path instead of hiding old calls. Compare the same narrative type, horizon and market regime. A good historical hit rate can still fail on the next event; a weak sample may be too small to judge. Use outcomes to size confidence and demand better confirmation, not to manufacture certainty.