Move from claim to source
Start with what moved, then identify who controlled the route. Check where the movement sits in CEX, DEX, spot and Perps context. Only then define the setup, the evidence that would invalidate it and the time horizon for judging the result.
- Movement Transaction and flow evidence.
- Actor Wallet behavior, labels and counterparties.
- Outcome A timestamped, price-graded record.
Match confidence to source quality
A verified transaction proves a movement. A label may identify an entity with varying precision. A detector proves its configured conditions fired. An agent narrative explains a thesis. A price outcome records what happened later. Never promote one evidence type into a stronger claim than it supports.
Write the condition before the outcome
Publish or save a structured setup with direction, entry logic, invalidation and target. Put the relevant condition on a background watch. When the lifecycle changes, Cexlens records the timestamp and price outcome so the method can be calibrated instead of remembered selectively.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between evidence and a thesis?
Evidence is an observable source or measured condition. A thesis is your explanation of why those observations may matter. Cexlens keeps the two connected but distinct.